Post-Trade Deadline Expansion Draft Projected Protected List

As the dust continues to settle from the trade deadline, the next big date for the NHL is the Seattle Kraken Expansion Draft on July 21. The rules will be the same as they were for the Vegas draft, and can be found here.

Most teams choose to protect 7 forwards, and 3 defensemen, in addition to one netminder (8 skaters is also an option for teams wishing to protect more than 3 defensemen). Assuming 7/3/1 is the path the Red Wings take, most of the list is no brainers. While Vegas did select a few UFAs, it isn't likely that Seattle will go that route, as Vegas didn't have much luck in ultimately signing any of those players. So for this list, I am assuming that only players with contracts, or RFA status will be protected, since the rebuilding Red Wings won't be risking a young player for a UFA they may not ultimately be able to re-sign.

So here is ho the Wings' list is shaping up:

Forwards

No brainers:

1. Dylan Larkin - Captain, leader, face of the franchise.
2. Tyler Bertuzzi - Probably the most consistent offensive weapon on the team, when healthy.
3. Jakub Vrana - No-brainer number 3. He was the key player acquired from Washington in the Anthony Mantha trade.
4. Robby Fabbri - The last of the no-brainers on offense. Still the best trade Yzerman has made to date (Mantha trade still being evaluated), Fabbri has cemented himself as a key player on a club that lacks offensive fire-power.

The decisions:

At the beginning of the season, there were a handful of decisions to be made, on a whole lot of players. I had Taro Hirose, Evgeny Svechnikov, Givani Smith, and Vladislav Namestnikov as realistic options for these final three forward spots. Over the course of the season, this picture has become clearer.

1. Vladislav Namestnikov - The most overlooked aspect of the Mantha trade, is the added flexibility that Richard Panik provides Detroit for the expansion draft. While it is extremely unlikely that the Kraken select Panik, him having met the games played requirement for 2 players exposed, allows the Red Wings to protect Vlad. He has a club friendly $2mm cap hit for one more year, which is the exact type of player the Golden Knights gobbled up in their draft a few years ago.
2. Michael Rasmussen - His development was showing a handful of question marks at the outset of the season, but his skating appears to have noticeably improved, and the offense is starting to follow in his latest stint in the NHL.
3. Adam Erne - Admittedly, I had all but written off Adam Erne at the beginning of the season. He had an abysmal season in 2019-20, was not even given a qualifying offer, but was re-signed shortly after. He has turned his fortunes around, and has created some offense from his grinding role, even finding some time on the power play. Recently, he has been showing why Yzerman brought him to Detroit for only a 4th round pick. Clearly, it was believed there was more to Erne's game than the 20 points he posted his final year in Tampa Bay, and he is showing that potential now.

Notable players exposed:

1. Evgeny Svechnikov - Finally healthy, the elder Svech got off to a strong start in the NHL this season, but has completely disappeared since. He will be 25 in October, so the clock is ticking on him to put it all together. He has cleared waivers twice this season, so it is a good bet that he wouldn't be the player the Kraken select, and he simply hasn't shown enough to be protected over those on the list. His injury history may also scare Seattle away unless he strings together some strong outings in the remaining games this year.
2. Taro Hirose - off to a strong start with Grand Rapids, there is some offensive potential there, but just as with Svechnikov, he is an older prospect who will be 25 in June. There have been flashes of his playmaking ability, but nothing consistently shows at the top level. He's probably more of the third line guy, at best, but his vision could find him some power play time as well.
3. Givani Smith - Of all the players exposed at forward, Smith seems to be the most intriguing. He is a scrappy player, who can win battles, and play up and down the lineup. He just turned 23 in February, so the clock hasn't quite expired on his development (although it is quickly winding down). He doesn't have a ton of time in the NHL under his belt, but hasn't looked out of place in his limited time. He is a unique type of player, and probably the most likely to be selected from the forward group, unless Seattle wanted to take a swing at signing a pending UFA (Bobby Ryan or Luke Glendening could be attractive pieces).
4. Frans Nielsen - His contract and declining ability make him an obvious candidate to be exposed. The games played requirement for exposed players are likely the biggest reason why he wasn't bought out last offseason. That could change this offseason, with only one more season remaining on his contract. However, he is only owed $3mm next season, so for an expansion club, this could be a cost effective way to meet the salary cap ($5.25mm cap hit in 2021-22), although even at $3mm he would be overvalued.

Defense

No-brainer

1. Filip Hronek - He is the iron-man of the Wings' defense corps, playing in all situations. He is a clear top-4 defenseman, and still only 23.

The decisions:

1. Troy Stecher - he has shown why he was given a two year contract this past offseason. He just plays a smart game, and is one of the hardest workers on the ice. There isn't a lot of offensive production to his game, but his advanced statistics show that he has a positive impact on the ice, in both the offensive and defensive zones. His contract cost, and advanced statistics make him all but a no-brainer for the list.
2. Dennis Cholowski - He just turned 23, and will have the opportunity down the stretch to show he belongs in the NHL. He has top tier offensive abilities as a defenseman, but has serious deficiencies in his own end. That will be the ultimate determinant for Dennis. Can his offensive abilities make up for the exposure he has in his own end? If he were to be left unprotected, and ultimately figure out the defensive side of things, he could end up being to the Kraken, what Shea Theodore is to the Golden Knights.

Notable players exposed:

1. Gustav Lindstrom - probably the most NHL ready of the Red Wing's defensive prospects. He doesn't turn 23 until October, and has shown he can be very good in his own end, and start things up ice with an excellent first pass. There isn't a whole lot to his game offensively, but that first pass is something the Wings currently lack. His play down the stretch could ultimately help him supplant Cholowski as the final protected defenseman. Unless they go the UFA route and take a swing at signing Marc Staal, Lindstrom would be a solid, albeit unexciting selection here.
2. Danny DeKeyser - His contract ($5mm for one more season) and his injury history make him an unlikely candidate to be selected. He has the type of contract Yzerman has been allowing to expire to get off the books.

Goalie

1. Thomas Greiss - In what started as a rough season for the Fuessen, Germany native, Greiss has come on strong of late, in the absence of Jonathan Bernier. Both are solid goaltenders, and provide the Wings with a solid pairing night-in and night-out. Given Bernier's UFA status, the nod here goes to Greiss.

When the dust settles from the expansion draft, expect a number of UFAs from all teams to be re-signed in fairly short order. While the Red Wings don't have many significant UFAs, Staal, Ryan, Glendening, Helm, and Gagner all figure to be good bets to re-sign with the club at the right price.

Yzerman has done a great job of readying the team for this expansion draft, and there is no clear-cut choice to make here for Seattle. My decision would probably be between Givani Smith and Gustav Lindstrom, but there's always the possibility that Stevie decides to help steer their decision, and send one of the team's plethora of draft picks over the next couple seasons to help sway them in a certain direction.

Trade Deadline 2021 Takes

The Red Wings made four trades in the days leading up to, and including, the deadline. Here is my take: 

Patrik Nemeth to Colorado for a 2022 4th Round Pick (COL)

This move is simply demonstrative of the economics in our game right now. A player (with retained salary) who may have fetched a third round pick, or even just an additional 6th or 7th round pick in the past, only brings back a 4th now.

Nemeth has been one of, if not the most consistent defenseman on the team the past two seasons. In fact, it wouldn’t be a long venture to say he’s been the most consistent player overall. Nothing flashy, but he doesn’t make a lot of mistakes either. He’s the type of player teams covet on playoff runs, especially when they come cheap. In Denver, he will be a minutes eater on the bottom four, on a team that already doesn’t give up much in their own zone.

The return for the Red Wings isn’t all that bad under the circumstances. With a flat cap for at least the next couple seasons, teams are shifting their priorities, and continuing to stock their pipeline is where focus is turning. Only the teams at the very top are really adding in a big way, think Toronto, Tampa Bay, and Washington (more on them later). And the 2021 (and even 2022) draft will be a whole lot more uncertain than in years past. A lot of teams will be operating with the same information they had for the 2020 draft, since the pandemic has limited games, travel, and much more. That’s a big factor. Having even a single extra pick, gives you another swing in the mid-rounds where teams may not have a great picture of some players whose seasons were cut short, or didn’t exist altogether (see: Ontario Hockey League).

Bottom line: A solid get for a legit cup contender in Colorado, and for Detroit, getting what they can for an expiring contract, another swing in an uncertain draft year. Grade: B-

2021 4th Round Pick (TBL) for 50% retention on David Savard’s salary $1,062,500

As part of a larger trade between Tampa Bay and Columbus (who were looking like they were winning the deadline deals until late Monday), Detroit became the intermediary to make it work. Another case where the economics just dictated the return. Last season, Toronto got a 5th round pick to retain some of Robin Lehner’s salary in the trade to Vegas. So in that way, the market was a little better, as the Leafs retained $2.5mm in cap hit in that deal. The Sharks also received a 4th in a deal involving a Columbus player when they retained $1,375,000 in cap hit to make the Nick Foligno trade work with Toronto. So realistically, Yzerman made out a bit better than the Sharks in what largely amounts to a mathematical transaction.

Bottom line: The Red Wings used their cap space as an asset, and got rewarded for it. Granted, it’s not on the Marc Staal level of reward, but it was unused space. It would have been disappointing had they used their final cap retention (teams can only have 3 retained cap hits at any given time), and still had a seemingly tradable contract on their books (i.e. Glendening, Bernier, Ryan-pre-injury), but they ended up not using all three, so this looks a little better. Grade: B

Jon Merrill to Montreal for Hayden Verbeek and 2021 5th Round Pick (OTT)

This one has me a bit torn. Jon Merrill has been a big reason why Detroit’s defense has been much improved from last year. He has ties to the area, was excited to be here, and seemed like a good overall fit for everyone. To ship him out for a 5th round pick seems a bit silly, as he seems like the kind of player that really helped to stabilize the back end, and brings a positive mentality to the locker room, which is critical when rebuilding through youth. So many kids coming in, sick of losing, without that presence, pretty soon you’re the Buffalo Sabres.

On the flip side of this, going back to the Nemeth trade, every pick this year is going to be a bit more of a shot in the dark than in past years, so obviously the value in the picks is there for the organization. And, not to be ignored, is the fact that this pick belonged to Ottawa, so it will be early in the 5th round, which would be a different story if it was Montreal’s own pick, or even a 5th rounder of a team expected to go deep in the playoffs, i.e. Toronto, Colorado, Washington, etc. Montreal gets a steady defender for their bottom 4, who can play minutes if necessary, for the modest spend of a 5th rounder.

Hayden Verbeek seems like a throw-in to this trade to take a contract off the books for Montreal. It gives them a little wiggle room down the stretch in that regard, but also brings the Nephew of Red Wings Assistant GM Pat Verbeek into the organization. He went undrafted after playing for the Sault Ste. Marie Greyhounds of the Ontario Hockey League, has bounced between the ECHL and AHL the past few years, before a stop early this season in the Slovak Extraliga during the pandemic delayed start to the season. He likely won’t crack an NHL lineup regularly, so little value can be placed here outside of the contract space he opened up for the Habs.

Bottom Line: This one really underscores the value the organization is placing on all draft picks this year. While Merrill could be a candidate for an offseason reunion (historically speaking, it is unlikely), the push to get some draft stock for any and all assets is really prevalent here. And speaking to the ends of a possible reunion, the expansion draft throws a wrench into any contract extensions right now. A player like Merrill, with a year or two left on a contract, would be an attractive selection for the Seattle Kraken, just as he was for Vegas. So don’t expect many extensions to be signed prior to the expansion draft, unless the team plans to protect that player. There will likely be a whole slew of extensions doled out right after the event. Grade: C-

Anthony Mantha to Washington for Richard Panik, Jakub Vrana, 2021 1st Round Pick (WSH), and 2022 2nd Round Pick (WSH)

Whatever your feelings are on this one, ultimately this one is a statement by management. That statement? Level-setting, and managing expectations. If there is one thing that Anthony Mantha’s performance has taught us this year, it’s that the Red Wings are still a long ways from the playoffs, and even further from contending. There was a lot of debate whether Mantha, Bertuzzi, or Larkin will be around when the Wings are contending again, and even more skepticism over whether they will be in their primes. This comes down to simple math. With three years left on his contract, Mantha will be on the back half of his prime, and the Red Wings will likely be a fringe team for making the post-season. So why not get value now, when it can still be of benefit in the future? Since Mantha likely wouldn’t be an impact player when the team does finally contend again, the Red Wings get another swing in the first round. It’s not like good players don’t come out of the entire first round. In the two years subsequent to Mantha’s 2013 draft, the Bruins found David Pastrnak 25th in 2014, the Flyers found Travis Konecny at 24th in 2015, and the Hurricanes even found Sebastian Aho at 35th in the second round that same year. Just because Joe Veleno was taken with a late pick doesn’t mean this will end up the same way. Even in the top ten, you aren’t guaranteed to find a player who will even make it to the NHL, let alone stick. It’s another swing, and eventually you have to hit on some of them. Yzerman and Co. are playing the odds on drafting, and there’s a lot of business sense to making this move now, rather than waiting five years to have nothing to show for the primes of Mantha, Bertuzzi, and Larkin. The second round pick here is just icing on the cake.

To be realistic, the statistics between Vrana and Mantha are comparable. Granted, Vrana has been playing on a much better team, but he doesn’t get the power play looks that Mantha does. It isn’t crazy to think that Vrana’s numbers may suffer a bit, but then again, the added power play opportunity could help. He is a year and a half younger, too. Mantha could very well flourish with better players around him. Mantha has the size, speed, and strength to create his own opportunities, but that’s not really his game. Playing with a legitimate playmaking center in Backstrom or Kuznetsov could really help Mantha. In Detroit he has created opportunities muscling his way to the net with the puck, attracting multiple defenders to him in the process. Imagine what he could do with a little help. Washington gets a slumping scorer in Mantha who, nearly everyone believes, still has untapped potential. Playing on a potent offense, with quality playmakers, he could really thrive. As Alexander Ovechkin heads further into the twilight of his hall of fame career, Mantha has the opportunity to pick up some of the slack as Ovechkin’s production begins to fade. Whenever that happens. Vrana may never be an all-star, but he should provide a boost at 5-on-5. His power play ability will likely get more opportunities than he had in Washington, but Mantha was more productive with the extra man.

As for Panik, I have seen a number of people saying they don’t like his game. I’m not saying it’s not a fair assessment, I’m just saying you’re missing the point. Without moving salary, this deal doesn’t happen. He was placed on waivers/taxi squad to reduce his cap hit for the remainder of the season, and the additional $1,675,000 was needed for the dollar-in-dollar-out situation the Capitals are in. LeBrun makes a good point that one of the picks is the compensation to take Panik’s cap hit, which is a fair point, while it makes it look like less of a home run for Detroit. 

What’s most important here, is that Panik provides the Red Wings another body to meet the exposure requirement for the upcoming expansion draft. Prior to this trade, Frans Nielsen and Vladislav Namestnikov (and his measly $2mm contract) were the only forwards who met the exposure requirement, meaning they would both have to be exposed, unless another player suddenly came into the fray meeting all of the requirements for exposure. Enter: Richard Panik. This allows the Red Wings to protect a savvy veteran in Namestnikov with a club friendly $2mm deal for one more year (the exact kind Vegas ate up at their expansion draft). If the club feels better about Rasmussen or Erne after their recent runs, that could impact the decision as well, but for now it’s nice to have options.

Bottom Line: The Capitals net themselves a scorer with some untapped potential in Mantha. He can help carry the torch on past the Ovechkin years. It certainly came at a cost. The return was exactly what it was going to take to move Mantha, and a return that not many thought the Red Wings could get considering the season he is having. Vrana will be able to take on the minutes that Mantha vacates, and will add more speed to the team. He comes with his deficiencies, but should make up for the production lost from Mantha. Panik is the cog that makes this work from a business perspective for both teams. He helps Washington clear cap space to take back Mantha, and he gives Detroit another option in the upcoming expansion draft. The draft picks were coming in any deal for Mantha. The first was a necessity, the second is just gravy. Without the second, I would still think this is a solid trade for Detroit (considering the cap space they would have for the next couple years). The Red Wings get a similar player in terms of pure production, who is a year and a half younger. They get two picks, one in the first round. And they get some expansion draft flexibility. Grade: A

Overall, a deadline that may disappoint in the short term, but continues to set the draft table for rebuilding to continue there, the way championship teams are built in the cap era. Grade: B+

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