Post-Trade Deadline Expansion Draft Projected Protected List

As the dust continues to settle from the trade deadline, the next big date for the NHL is the Seattle Kraken Expansion Draft on July 21. The rules will be the same as they were for the Vegas draft, and can be found here.

Most teams choose to protect 7 forwards, and 3 defensemen, in addition to one netminder (8 skaters is also an option for teams wishing to protect more than 3 defensemen). Assuming 7/3/1 is the path the Red Wings take, most of the list is no brainers. While Vegas did select a few UFAs, it isn't likely that Seattle will go that route, as Vegas didn't have much luck in ultimately signing any of those players. So for this list, I am assuming that only players with contracts, or RFA status will be protected, since the rebuilding Red Wings won't be risking a young player for a UFA they may not ultimately be able to re-sign.

So here is ho the Wings' list is shaping up:

Forwards

No brainers:

1. Dylan Larkin - Captain, leader, face of the franchise.
2. Tyler Bertuzzi - Probably the most consistent offensive weapon on the team, when healthy.
3. Jakub Vrana - No-brainer number 3. He was the key player acquired from Washington in the Anthony Mantha trade.
4. Robby Fabbri - The last of the no-brainers on offense. Still the best trade Yzerman has made to date (Mantha trade still being evaluated), Fabbri has cemented himself as a key player on a club that lacks offensive fire-power.

The decisions:

At the beginning of the season, there were a handful of decisions to be made, on a whole lot of players. I had Taro Hirose, Evgeny Svechnikov, Givani Smith, and Vladislav Namestnikov as realistic options for these final three forward spots. Over the course of the season, this picture has become clearer.

1. Vladislav Namestnikov - The most overlooked aspect of the Mantha trade, is the added flexibility that Richard Panik provides Detroit for the expansion draft. While it is extremely unlikely that the Kraken select Panik, him having met the games played requirement for 2 players exposed, allows the Red Wings to protect Vlad. He has a club friendly $2mm cap hit for one more year, which is the exact type of player the Golden Knights gobbled up in their draft a few years ago.
2. Michael Rasmussen - His development was showing a handful of question marks at the outset of the season, but his skating appears to have noticeably improved, and the offense is starting to follow in his latest stint in the NHL.
3. Adam Erne - Admittedly, I had all but written off Adam Erne at the beginning of the season. He had an abysmal season in 2019-20, was not even given a qualifying offer, but was re-signed shortly after. He has turned his fortunes around, and has created some offense from his grinding role, even finding some time on the power play. Recently, he has been showing why Yzerman brought him to Detroit for only a 4th round pick. Clearly, it was believed there was more to Erne's game than the 20 points he posted his final year in Tampa Bay, and he is showing that potential now.

Notable players exposed:

1. Evgeny Svechnikov - Finally healthy, the elder Svech got off to a strong start in the NHL this season, but has completely disappeared since. He will be 25 in October, so the clock is ticking on him to put it all together. He has cleared waivers twice this season, so it is a good bet that he wouldn't be the player the Kraken select, and he simply hasn't shown enough to be protected over those on the list. His injury history may also scare Seattle away unless he strings together some strong outings in the remaining games this year.
2. Taro Hirose - off to a strong start with Grand Rapids, there is some offensive potential there, but just as with Svechnikov, he is an older prospect who will be 25 in June. There have been flashes of his playmaking ability, but nothing consistently shows at the top level. He's probably more of the third line guy, at best, but his vision could find him some power play time as well.
3. Givani Smith - Of all the players exposed at forward, Smith seems to be the most intriguing. He is a scrappy player, who can win battles, and play up and down the lineup. He just turned 23 in February, so the clock hasn't quite expired on his development (although it is quickly winding down). He doesn't have a ton of time in the NHL under his belt, but hasn't looked out of place in his limited time. He is a unique type of player, and probably the most likely to be selected from the forward group, unless Seattle wanted to take a swing at signing a pending UFA (Bobby Ryan or Luke Glendening could be attractive pieces).
4. Frans Nielsen - His contract and declining ability make him an obvious candidate to be exposed. The games played requirement for exposed players are likely the biggest reason why he wasn't bought out last offseason. That could change this offseason, with only one more season remaining on his contract. However, he is only owed $3mm next season, so for an expansion club, this could be a cost effective way to meet the salary cap ($5.25mm cap hit in 2021-22), although even at $3mm he would be overvalued.

Defense

No-brainer

1. Filip Hronek - He is the iron-man of the Wings' defense corps, playing in all situations. He is a clear top-4 defenseman, and still only 23.

The decisions:

1. Troy Stecher - he has shown why he was given a two year contract this past offseason. He just plays a smart game, and is one of the hardest workers on the ice. There isn't a lot of offensive production to his game, but his advanced statistics show that he has a positive impact on the ice, in both the offensive and defensive zones. His contract cost, and advanced statistics make him all but a no-brainer for the list.
2. Dennis Cholowski - He just turned 23, and will have the opportunity down the stretch to show he belongs in the NHL. He has top tier offensive abilities as a defenseman, but has serious deficiencies in his own end. That will be the ultimate determinant for Dennis. Can his offensive abilities make up for the exposure he has in his own end? If he were to be left unprotected, and ultimately figure out the defensive side of things, he could end up being to the Kraken, what Shea Theodore is to the Golden Knights.

Notable players exposed:

1. Gustav Lindstrom - probably the most NHL ready of the Red Wing's defensive prospects. He doesn't turn 23 until October, and has shown he can be very good in his own end, and start things up ice with an excellent first pass. There isn't a whole lot to his game offensively, but that first pass is something the Wings currently lack. His play down the stretch could ultimately help him supplant Cholowski as the final protected defenseman. Unless they go the UFA route and take a swing at signing Marc Staal, Lindstrom would be a solid, albeit unexciting selection here.
2. Danny DeKeyser - His contract ($5mm for one more season) and his injury history make him an unlikely candidate to be selected. He has the type of contract Yzerman has been allowing to expire to get off the books.

Goalie

1. Thomas Greiss - In what started as a rough season for the Fuessen, Germany native, Greiss has come on strong of late, in the absence of Jonathan Bernier. Both are solid goaltenders, and provide the Wings with a solid pairing night-in and night-out. Given Bernier's UFA status, the nod here goes to Greiss.

When the dust settles from the expansion draft, expect a number of UFAs from all teams to be re-signed in fairly short order. While the Red Wings don't have many significant UFAs, Staal, Ryan, Glendening, Helm, and Gagner all figure to be good bets to re-sign with the club at the right price.

Yzerman has done a great job of readying the team for this expansion draft, and there is no clear-cut choice to make here for Seattle. My decision would probably be between Givani Smith and Gustav Lindstrom, but there's always the possibility that Stevie decides to help steer their decision, and send one of the team's plethora of draft picks over the next couple seasons to help sway them in a certain direction.