Where do the Red Wings go from here?

 As the start of training camp is fast approaching, it's hard to ignore what's on the line for the Red Wings organization in the coming years, but let's take a look at it...

When Steve Yzerman arrived, he inherited more than half a dozen underperforming contracts, and a barren prospect cabinet. Since then, the shelves have been stocked, and the slate cleared, and now it's a matter of time. Time that will be spent grueling through practices, and hours watching video, trying to learn from mistakes.

To me the process is clear, and here is what I would want to see:

1. Let the players show they aren't ready. In the past, Ken Holland often bragged about being able to leave prospects in the minors until they were "over-ripe." Sure, while it's hard to decide when to insert a prospect into a winning lineup, the cost of waiting too long is wasting the prime development years. I look at Gustav Nyquist as a prime example here. For a team that was seeing repeated early playoff exits, and a faltering status as the perennial division champ, it made no sense to leave Gus stewing in Grand Rapids for another whole season and then some, even after he was already scoring at a point per game pace, as a reliable 2-way player in the AHL. If it looks like a player is ready, let them prove it. If they aren't ready, they will prove that, too. But the days of rewarding loyalty need to be a thing of the past, and reserving roster spots for players that had success five years ago over someone who can perform today, is exactly what got us to this point. The slate is cleared, and it needs to stay that way until the team is ready to contend, and the players earn their keep. More on that ahead.

2. Make the players earn their payday. Now, there are a few thoughts here, but let me break it down. In the KH era, he liked to pay players for 'how they will play in the future.' While it's certainly nice to get a guy locked in at a low rate if you know they will be tearing it up in the future, the likelihood of projecting that isn't all that great. One example of this is Gus Nyquist again, and while he somewhat lived up to the value of that contract, we go back to number 1 and the fact that his prime development years were behind him by the time he got to the NHL. There just wasn't any more time for him to grow. These days, very few players take serious development steps after the age of 23, and Nyquist was 24 when he finally became a full-time NHLer, and had already posted his career high in goals, which he has yet to match again.

Another player that is an example of all that went wrong toward the end of the KH era is Jonathan Ericsson. Similar situation, where he spent two and a half seasons in Grand Rapids before sticking in the NHL at age 25. He was also given a hefty contract at the time, that he never really lived up to. He was partnered with Niklas Kronwall, but never managed to find any sort of offensive element to his game at the NHL level, despite the organization touting the fact that he was a center in Sweden. He was then rewarded with another hefty contract extension that ended with him in Grand Rapids under Yzerman's watch. He never truly earned it, but was given a hefty deal with the thought that he would continue to grow. Theory quickly met reality.

3. Both the player and the team need to be in a position for the big payday. It is entirely possible that the rebuild falls flat at some point. Even if we had a couple bona-fide star prospects, all it takes is an injury or two for things to go awry. If that were to happen, the team would be wise not to overspend to hang onto a player who is expecting a big raise. Only when both the team is on an upward trajectory, as well as a good number of the players, should long term contracts be doled out. Just because a player has earned it, doesn't mean the team should muddy up the slate with big contracts, especially if they won't be able to give them help in the near term.

In the salary cap era, there really is a limited window for teams to be successful. You've got to have the majority of your roster in their prime, or really close to it.

That's what makes so much of a rebuild is about timing, and the worst thing a team can do is refuse to admit when the timing is just flat out wrong. The best thing about the Red Wings roster right now, is the unquestionable flexibility they have created. If you sacrifice that flexibility before you are truly ready to compete, you may as well just start the rebuild over. It's one thing to be in cap-hell if you're winning Stanley Cups (ahem, Tampa Bay), and it's another thing if you aren't winning at all (Chicago is a one thought despite past success, but Montreal is squarely in this boat and weren't even really contenders before or now after their run this past season). That must be avoided. A quality player can always be traded for futures, but to lock them up long term only to languish and take the luster off their game, doesn't really benefit the player or the team, and just takes away that aforementioned flexibility (Oliver Ekman-Larsson comes to mind, and don't even get me started on the Canucks wasting one of the two retained salary transactions that his contract can go through for only $990k in savings, clearly a short-sighted move).

4. Patience is key. More to the timing of it all, the pieces have to fall into place at the right time. If that means a well-timed acquisition, great! If that means trading Tyler Bertuzzi or Filip Hronek in the next season or two, to secure more futures for the extended rebuild, that's fine too. While the Red Wings are drafting some solid prospects right now, it's important to remember, it will be 3-5 years before many of them make it to the NHL, if they do at all. For those that do make it, it could be another 2-3 years before they really become an impact player and grow to their full potential.

Best case, it's probably 5 years before we know what we've truly got in Moritz Seider, Lucas Raymond, Simon Edvinsson, and Sebastian Cossa (and goalies tend to take longer to develop anyways). So it's not happening overnight, and any later picks that pan out will take even longer. And injuries are just a part of the game that could derail the whole thing. We have a foundation, but it's entirely possible that the likes of Dylan Larkin, Bertuzzi, Hronek, and Robby Fabbri have either moved on, or are simply past their primes when the foundation becomes truly competitive.

And remember, Yzerman has done this before, and he's even traded some popular guys along the way. Sometimes you've got to admit when you need to kick the can down the road for a couple years because you just aren't there yet. Stevie has shown in the past he can make those decisions (remember Ben Bishop?).

It will take discipline in the long run to make it all happen. And there are certainly other factors, but if the Red Wings keep drafting well and can avoid the kind of mistakes and problems I've outlined here, then the future could be very bright.

Red Wings 2021 Draft Recap

Another disappointing lottery outcome left the Red Wings needing to create their own opportunities at the draft. They did just that, making a couple trades to jump up in the draft and take high-ceiling players:

1. D Simon Edvinsson (Round 1, 6th Overall) - When all of the center options jumped off the board in the top 5, the Red Wings went back and doubled down on defense. There's a lot to like about this kid, who brings comparisons to Victor Hedman, though I think it's necessary to temper expectations there. While they both are long, mobile defensemen, Edvinsson probably doesn't have the same offensive projection as Hedman. While the sky seems to be the limit for Simon, it will likely take a while to realize his full potential, but he has all of the tools to top-4 defensive d-man for a long time.
2. G Sebastian Cossa (Round 1, 15th Overall) - It's becoming clear what Yzerman values in a goalie. Size. Every goalie Yzerman has taken with the Wings has been taller than 6'4". While the sample size is a mere three with Detroit, the trend was similar in Tampa Bay, where he regularly took goalies 6'3" and up, including the current backstop Andrei Vasilevskiy. There are certainly knocks on Cossa, in that he lacks control in his lateral movement, causing him to be out of position, but that's something that can be improved. For a big guy, the word that keeps getting tossed around is athleticism. And that's something you can't teach. The Red Wings moved up 7 spots here to grab Cossa, sending a second round pick to Dallas. Time will tell whether Cossa or Jesper Wallstedt (20th, MIN) end up being the better of the two. Both have the tools, and Wallstedt may be a little further in his development, but Cossa has the size advantage by 3 inches. The taller the goalie, the more of him there is for pucks to hit, but the development needs to continue all the same.
3. D Shai Buium (Round 2, 35th Overall) - Another guy who seems like he could have a whole lot of upside. Has the raw tools to make it, and showed them in Plymouth shortly after the draft in the Junior Showcase, against some of the other top players in his age group from around the world. The Wings moved up here (their second and final jump up in this draft), shipping a 4th rounder to Vegas to jump up a couple spots, and it's not hard to understand why. He will be attending the University of Denver this fall.
4. W Carter Mazur (Round 3, 69th Overall) - Mazur was drafted as a 19 year old, after being passed over last year. Had a big year in the USHL, and at one point, played for some guy named Draper. So the connections are there. And they would know the character of player they are getting, perhaps better than anyone. He will also be attending the University of Denver, where the Red Wings will have 3 prospects, including Buium and 2019 2nd round pick Antti Tuomisto.
5. C Redmond Savage (Round 4, 113th Overall) - A seemingly late selection as far as the USNTDP is concerned, Savage is no slouch as far as praise is concerned. For the USA Hockey development program, it seems like every year lately, there have been 3-5 prospects tagged for the first round alone. He finishes checks and does a lot of little things well. He will be playing at the University of Miami (OH) in the fall.
6. C Liam Dower Nilsson (Round 5, 133rd Overall) - The story that everyone's talking about, is how the Red Wings asked all of Liam's draft eligible teammates whom they would want on their team, and they all said LDN. That's quite high praise. His work ethic and drive have stood out to the organization, and he knows very well that his development is a long term project, admitting as much that he probably wouldn't see the NHL for five years or so. But, his idol was Henrik Zetterberg, so if he can mold himself into the same type of responsible two-way center that Hank was, then this could be another building block in 3-5 years.
7. D Oscar Plandowski (Round 5, 154th Overall) -  On the lower end size-wise for Yzerman drafted defensemen at only 6 feet tall. He adds another right-handed shot from the blue line to an organization that is now flush with that attribute, after nearly a decade on the hunt for one. Should have a chance to grow this year with a couple of older players moving on from his QMJHL club.
8. W Pasquale Zito (Round 6, 165th Overall) - There's not a lot out there on Zito, but this is just the type of spot where it's low risk, with a potentially high reward. Late in the draft, there are a lot of guys that didn't play much due to the pandemic, or just had their seasons cancelled altogether. There are bound to be a few sixth-seventh rounders who would have made huge strides from their rookie years in the Ontario Hockey League, for example, where the season was scrapped entirely. Zito seems to fit this description.

We are starting to see what Yzerman values in players. On the back end, he values a combination of size and mobility, both on defense and in the crease. Up front, size clearly matters less, as he continues to add skilled players, often of a more diminutive stature. Above all, they clearly value character, and with all of the stories you hear after the draft, of Yzerman making these kids uncomfortable with his interview questioning, and asking teammates who you'd want to play with, he's trying to get honest opinions of these kids, and from their peers. And there's no better way to build a culture than that.

Overall, I was torn on how to grade the Red Wings draft as either a B+/A-. I am torn as to where I want to put it. Part of me thought B+ because they may have passed on a couple of really intriguing players in favor of "high ceiling" guys. Another part of me thinks A- because of the moves made at the draft, and how they leveraged their excess draft capital to get a better player in a couple of spots. I need to keep reminding myself though, that this is a rebuild, and it's going to take time.

Without getting one of the top 2-3 picks, well, ever, you need to find other guys that have that higher ceiling, even if it takes time and maybe even a couple of misses along the way. The Red Wings are taking the guys they think have the highest ceiling, and we just need to be patient. One thing is for sure, from his very first pick as GM, he picks have often been headscratchers. No one expected Moritz Seider, but no one is arguing now that he is a legit top-2 defensive prospect. Will they all work out that way? No, not a chance. But as long as they are proving people wrong, you can't really argue with the results.

One thing I wish I'd seen in the draft, was a couple more late round shots. With a lot of the late rounders, many of them didn't have much of a season, and some didn't have one at all (looking at you, OHL). I wouldn't have minded to see the Red Wings have a couple more shots there at guys who weren't scouted all that much.

For now, I will go with an A-, because I think the Wings loaded up with quality people this year. Five years down the road may be another story, but if they can figure out the player development side which wasn't overly productive under Holland, then maybe they can turn a few of these kids into NHL regulars.

Frans Nielsen Buyout and Other Thoughts

I'm not sure why the team didn't buy out Frans earlier in the offseason, instead waiting for the post-arbitration window (opened by Adam Erne's filing), but he is now gone. The team needed Frans to meet the expansion draft exposure requirements at forward, but he still could have been bought out after Seattle disappointed the hockey world with their selections.

While the move saves the team roughly $1M in cap space, this move was never about the math, and all about opening a roster spot for youngsters to take. The team is not giving this spot to a youngster, but with so many young guys (Veleno, Berggren, Raymond, Smith) vying for a roster spot (Smith is out of waiver options), the team is showing them the spots they can take. In the unlikely scenario where Veleno, Berggren, and Raymond all show they aren't ready, Taro Hirose, Chase Pearson, or Luke Witkowski could be called upon to take that spot.

Personally, I was still surprised when the team didn't buy out Frans in the first window. There has been no real change in the projection of the organization that likely would have altered their decision making. I mean, what changed for the organization between the first and second window? They lost Luke Glendening, their best faceoff man, and Valtteri Filppula, another veteran center. Unless they were unsure of the center position, with those two and Sam Gagner all being free agents, and this prior to Mitchell Stephens' signing, then I understand the thought process.

At the end of the day, that leaves only one bad holdover contract from the Holland era, that of Danny DeKeyser. Danny got off to a slow start this past season, which was to be expected. By the end of the year, he was starting to look like his old self, so it's good to see him get another chance. His injury history is concerning, and I tend to look at him as the defensive version of Darren Helm. He was solid in his younger days when he stayed healthy, but will the toll of injuries cause him to change his game to the point where he is ineffective? Time will tell.

Yzerman now has a roster that is entirely of his own making. It is far from perfect, but very managable year to year. It is up to each player to compete for a roster spot, and actually earn a long-term contract. Something that was regularly handed out during the Holland era, like free samples at Costco. Those days are done, accountability is being created, and whomever earns their spots will get them. More are available than there have been in a long time, and we finally have some intriguing prospects competing for them.