Potential deadline movers, and the assets they could fetch

Looking forward to the 2021-22 season, the foregone conclusion is that the Red Wings will again be a bottom-10 team. While many of us eagerly await the upcoming year, if only to see if the team's prized prospects can take that 'next step,' I will take a look forward to the trade deadline and what the team may be able to fetch for their handful of trade candidates.

The Red Wings already used one of their three salary retention spots on Richard Panik, so that will certainly complicate things at the trade deadline for the next two seasons, as Panik's deal had two years remaining. Due to the continued flat-cap this season, any trade involving a cap hit over $2mm may require retaining cap hit, or taking a bad contract back, so it will make things challenging for Stevie, as just about anybody being moved will fit this bill.

Nick Leddy - while many of us were skeptical of Yzerman to give up a second rounder for Leddy, here is the reason he did. It's entirely possible that the Wings could end up fetching a first round pick for him at the trade deadline. Columbus was able to get a first rounder each for David Savard and Nick Foligno, plus a third and fourth, respctively. Leddy would fall into the same area value-wise as those two, and depending on the season he has, could return close to the same. He may not come with the additional mid-round pick, but a first rounder wouldn't be out of the question. Obviously, he needs to stay healthy (he has done so throughout his career) and be productive, but the value the team could fetch is where spending the second rounder to acquire him made some sense, albeit with a bit of risk. Cap hit would have to be retained in any deal, and an intermediary club would likely need to be found to absorb 25% of his cap hit as well, just as in the Savard and Foligno deals last year.

However, if the team likes the chemistry, leadership, and fit, they could try to extend him. Realistically, it will be difficult for the team to acquire a similar player on the free agent market until the club really improves, so this may not be a bad way to go. Fewer assets for the future, but the mentorship of a more offensive player could be good for Hronek, Seider, Lindstrom, Edvinsson, and others in the next few years.

Robby Fabbri - The biggest struggle with Fabbri, once again, will be staying healthy. In his NHL career, he has yet to play in a full season, and the injury struggles are well documented. When healthy, he shows the ability to be a 25-25-50 guy. Coming off injuries, he clearly loses momentum, but when he's up to speed, he scores at better than a 0.5 point per game clip. There are some defensive deficiencies to his game, but for a contender looking to get some depth scoring in the top-9, he would be an attractive option. Like Leddy, some cap hit would have to be retained, but if he stays healthy, there's no reason he couldn't fetch a second rounder, if even in the 2023 draft (sooner would obviously be more valuable).

Like Leddy, if the Red Wings feel Robby is part of the future plans, they could still try to resign him. Regardless, all of this hinges on his ability to stay healthy.

Troy Stecher - With an influx of right-shooting defensemen about to inundate the Red Wings roster, it is safe to say this is probably Troy's last season in Detroit. He was one of the teams best players in terms of advanced statistics last season, but with so many promising young players (Hronek, Seider, Lindstrom), he simply doesn't seem to have a spot. There isn't much offense to his game, despite some dazzling plays in the world championships. He just makes the plays, and for a contender, that could be valuable.

His $1.7mm cap hit doesn't make a move prohibitive, but at that price, many contenders will likely be able to find a better player through a trade, even if that player is more expensive. At that time of the year, it comes down to the best deal a team can make with its cap space. So cap hit may need to be retained, or another partner found to make it work. At that point, retention spots may be better spent elsewhere.

Thomas Greiss - A trade involving Greiss would mean a few things. First, he picked up right where he left off last season. Even in a platoon situation, his numbers would rank high among the leagues top netminders. Second, he is not likely to be re-signed at seasons end. Third, and most importantly, Alex Nedeljkovic has shown he is the goalie it was believed he could be when he finished as a finalist for the Norris Trophy last season, prompting a trade to the Red Wings and a two year, $6mm contract.

Greiss likely wouldn't command a big return unless he is carrying more of the weight, which would beg the question of why he's being traded in the first place. David Rittich snagged Calgary a third round pick last year, after a few seasons of reliable work. Using that as the comparison, Greiss may be able to fetch a second rounder, but cap hit would have to be retained somewhere.

Marc Staal - While he has a full no-move clause, I imagine he would waive it for a small handful of clubs with a legitimate shot at the cup. One of those would likely be Carolina, where his brother Jordan plays. Staal may not bring much back, and he falls into the same category as Leddy, where his leadership and mentorship may be valued more than what they bring back, with the rebuild headed into overdrive and another half-dozen defensive prospects waiting on the doorstep. He could probably bring a fourth or fifth rounder back with him, and the Wings would likely take whatever contract back that would open a roster spot for him. Modest cap hit at $2mm, but would still be tough without retention, and those two spots would beg for a better use.

Vladislav Namestnikov - We didn't see much offensively from Vlad in his first season in Detroit, but the ability to chip in a few goals is certainly there. What he did do was flex his defensive prowess, and at trade deadline time, there are bound to be teams looking to flex theirs, too. Unless we see a spike in his offensive output, he probably wouldn't bring back much, but a fourth or fifth rounder wouldn't be unreasonable. Like Stecher and Staal, his cap hit may make a trade difficult, a salary retention is likely better used elsewhere.

Sam Gagner - Gagner provided a veteran presence, and showed he could be a valuable depth forward. Despite his being a former top-10 pick, he was never able to stick at the top of a lineup. The offensive ability to obvious, but he just can't keep up with the pace these days. His ability to play reliable two way hockey as a fourth line center may make him a candidate, too. Not likely to bring back more than a fifth-sixth rounder, but a pick is a pick at this point.

Adam Erne - Erne showed exactly why Yzerman gave up a fourth round pick to bring him to Detroit upon his arrival. His 11 goals last season projects to 20 over a whole season. If he can continue what he did last season, he will certainly have some value going forward, and could likely bring back a second rounder. However, with one season left on his contract, he would probably need to bring back more than that for a trade to occur.

Tyler Bertuzzi - He is the type of player all teams want in the playoffs, and he could be on the tail-end of his prime by the time the Red Wings win a playoff series again. The rumors are swirling, but Yzerman knows he has an asset here. If the injury issues are behind him, Stevie would be wise hold out for a center prospect here. While Bertuzzi could likely command the kind of return that Mantha fetched, perhaps a bit less, he will still bring back a haul. That's where it become imperative for Yzerman and Co. to compensate for their lack of a lottery pick that would land them the sort of top center that has eluded them through this rebuild. Only a handful of teams have that sort of prospect, and not many of them are playoff teams.

If Yzerman is wise to only trade Bertuzzi (if at all) for the type of futures that have eluded them thus far (centers, centers, centers), a trade likely doesn't happen in season. At least this season.

All in all, if this past season is any indication, we may only see a few bodies moved. In all likelihood, we won't see another Anthony Mantha sized surprise, but seeing bodies moved for a second, third, or fourth round pick isn't out of the question. It is possible that a move is made to add another first rounder, but that would depend on the direction the team takes this year. The bigger the step forward, the lower that chance. A step backward, may increase the odds of trades, but that could impact the value the assets have in the first place.

I think Nick Leddy will bring a lot of value to the team, and they will try and hold onto him. I would suspect the team adds three picks at the deadline at this point, and none likely above the second round. If they end up not using their salary retention slots, which is probably unlikely, they may offer them to other teams as they did last year in the David Savard trade.

Projecting the Red Wings 2021-22 Season

Thinking ahead to the start of the season, I thought I'd put down some ideas on how the possible outcomes could affect the rebuild...

Season outcome possibilities:

Good: Breakouts from a handful of key players, team finishes just below the playoff bubble.

• The likes of Suter, Seider, Vrana, and Zadina all take serious strides and establish themselves as impact players.
• Larkin, Fabbri, Bertuzzi all stay healthy, playing in 95% of team games.
• A couple other nice "surprises" happen. Mitchell Stephens has some untapped potential, and Jonatan Berggren, Lucas Raymond, and Joe Veleno could all see extended looks at the NHL level.
• Nedeljkovic repeats his "rookie year" success, and is a Calder candidate for second season.
• A couple of expiring contracts could be moved at the deadline. Most likely candidates would be Gagner, Namestnikov, and Stecher. I think the club would be interested in trying to hang onto Leddy if there is a fit, as I don't think you'd trade a second rounder for an expiring contract when you're rebuilding. If there is a trade to be made to bring a center into the mix, I think it could happen.

Bad: Continued regression from existing players, multiple injuries derail season, team slips into the bottom three.

• Suter struggles to score without elite linemates. Seider struggles at the NHL level. Vrana loses scoring touch he showed after trade. Zadina never finds scoring touch.
• Larkin, Fabbri, Bertuzzi all miss significant time.
• Nedeljkovic and Greiss both struggle.
• Fire sale. A number of Leddy, Stecher, Namestnikov, Bertuzzi, Hronek, Fabbri, Suter could be moved at deadline for futures. But, if the team is that bad, their value could disappear.

Expected: Growth from a few players, slides from a couple others, team still finishes in bottom 6-10 in league.

• I would expect Suter to struggle out of the gate, but eventually find some chemistry with a talented winger. Vrana should cool off, his shooting percentage will come back to earth from the 25% he was at after the trade last year, likely settling in around his careen 13.7% rate. However, he should also get close to 200 shots, if not more in a full season on the top line, putting him in the high 20s in goals for the season. Zadina will probably find a little more success than he had this year. It's hard to imagine his bad puck luck continuing around the net. There were more than a handful of times last season when the puck just didn't bounce his way. He has far too good of a shot to repeat a 6.2% shooting percentage. Over a full season, with some better puck luck, I don't see how he couldn't score 20 goals this season.
• Odds are, one of Larkin, Fabbri, and Bertuzzi will miss some time. How much time will be what determines the Wings fate this season.
• Stephens seems destined to be the 3-4C. If he can find some of his untapped potential, that could become 2-3C. Joe Veleno seems most likely to stick in the NHL this season. If he can find some of the offense that had him as a top scorer in the QMJHL for two season, that would go a long ways for this team. Berggren and Raymond are not likely to play significant time, as the team wouldn't want to burn a year of their ELCs unless they tear it up. And by tear it up, I mean producing near a point-per-game clip. Unless one of the sticks with the club out of camp, it's not likely they would eclipse that 9 game mark unless they are torching the AHL, too.
• It probably isn't likely that Nedeljkovic has quite the same success this time around. Even Greiss struggled in his first season with the club, and there will be an adjustment period with a vastly different team in front of him. I mean, the best defense is a good offense, right? Greiss will probably look a bit more like the netminder we saw in the second half of 2021. He clearly adjusted, and looked like the guy the Wings knew they were getting. I would still plan on a platoon situation, but TG should be able to carry the weight if AN has any struggles adjusting.
• Trades involving Gagner, Namestnikov, and Stecher could occur at the deadline if the team doesn't envision any of them being re-signed. Same goes for Leddy. If Bertuzzi and Fabbri stay healthy, I could see a trade happening if it could improve the long term outlook. In any trade for a serious asset like this, I think Yzerman will insist on a young center or center prospect coming back the other way. 

We saw last season, that a mild improvement was possible even though a lot of things didn't go right. We saw some improvement from Rasmussen, and a partially rebuilt defense that really cut down opponents' shot quality. We hoped to see Larkin cement himself as a true number one center (which we now think may never happen), and form a dominant trio with Bertuzzi and Anthony Mantha who was certain to become a dominant player. When the latter didn't happen, it prompted the trade for Vrana. 

With continued reinforcements on the back end, Seider should help even with some inevitable growing pains, there should be stability even if the forward group continues to stagnate. This really boils down to the forwards and their ability to both stay healthy, and take that next step in their development. Even with the health of Larkin, Fabbri, and Bertuzzi being in question, the team managed to stay competitive right down to the end. Credit the defense.

With a new assistant coach in Alex Tanguay, it gives some hope for the power play. Tanguay played on some tremendous power play units in his heyday, so having someone who has done it with the best, with go a long ways. It is important to note however, that it still comes down to the players on the ice. Nick Leddy will help in this regard. What I saw a lot last year, was teams just not respecting the Wings players with the puck on the power play. The only guy who was really respected with the puck was Mantha, the rest of the team would have a defender on them as soon as they got the puck, and it was a rare occasion when they could actually retain possession. The talent level necessary to beat guys one-on-one and create that aspect of respect when the Wings have the puck still isn't there, and with only one meaningful acquisition up front in Suter, the growth will have to come from within.

Being healthy will go a little ways toward picking up a few extra wins, but the big steps forward will have to come from increased production, resulting from the continued development of the younger players. This season will be a true test of the Red Wings development ability. It's not so much a reflection on Yzerman, but more on the struggles we saw under Holland, when the team regularly failed to draft and develop NHL talent (think, Emmerton, Oulette, Sproul). This season should answer the question, 'Can the Wings salvage anything of the Holland era?' (Rasmussen, Zadina, Veleno, and Berggren are all Holland picks with a lot of hype to their names...) There have been a handful of personnel changes in the development department since Yzerman took the reigns, but it's still too early to tell the results as no Yzerman draft pick has played an NHL game yet. That should change early this year, with Seider and Raymond both knocking on the doors of LCA.

Red Wings 2021-2022 Breakout Candidates

 We all have in mind who needs to break out for the Red Wings, but who else could make a jump and help push the team forward in the rebuild? We will start with the obvious choices...

5. Michael Rasmussen  He definitely showed there's a place for him in the NHL last year, as his feet finally started to catch up with the pace of the game at the top level. Adding some serious scoring would be a great scenario. While his ceiling seems to be closer to the 35-40 point mark, if he could come close to that this season as a likely third line center, that would be a successful season. If he is able to do it as a 3C, that means some other things went right down this list. More on that shortly.

4. Jakub Vrana  He showed some brilliance after being acquired from the Capitals in the Anthony Mantha trade, and instantly became an obvious candidate for a breakout. After playing on a cup team where he was essentially a third line winger, he was obviously sheltered from a prime role. Could his late season burst be the start of a major breakout? For a former top-15 pick who has shown flashes of brilliance in a sheltered role, I won't be betting against him. It's entirely possible that he posts better numbers than Mantha this season.

3. Filip Zadina  This one is obvious. The former number six pick has shown some serious growth in the past year. There are a lot of naysayers about him, and I just don't get it. At the moment, he is an outstanding two-way player. I was seriously impressed with his play away from the puck this past season, looking like Pavel Datsyuk on the backcheck on a handful of occasions.

No question, Zadina needs to find that next gear offensively. You can see he likes to handle the puck, but doesn't quite have the wheels to get the separation he needs to carry the puck like that. A quicker first couple steps could help. He lacks some explosiveness to his skating, but has some tremendous offensive skills. He is rarely out of position, and could seriously benefit from playing with better players, and more consistency in line mates. Is he a bust? Absolutely not. In fact, he's played about half the games of Jesperi Kotkaniemi, and only has 7 fewer goals. Sure, we would all like a star right out of the gate, but Filip is far from a lost cause, and has yet to even play a full season. At a minimum, he should have the potential to score 20-20-40, how much he can do beyond that is the big question.

2. Dylan Larkin  Larkin? Seriously? Larkin's career to this point has been an offensive roller coaster. Up and down, as the talent around him has come and gone. And as injuries have nagged at him, he desperately needs a healthy breakout year. A breakout year from a guy who has scored 30 goals and 70 points before? Yes. He needs to get that confidence back, and more importantly build on it. With his speed and skill, there's no reason he shouldn't be putting up 60 points every year. Is he a top-end number one center? Nope. Is he one of the top 20 centers in the NHL? No again. But he's probably one of the top-30, which means he is a low-end 1C or high-end 2C. He should be scoring more regardless. He needs to be one of the top offensive guys on the team if any progress is going to be seen this year.

1. Pius Suter  That brings us to the newbie. There's a lot to like about Suter's game, but there's also some worry too. How much of his success as a rookie came as a result of playing with Patrick Kane? Looking at the highlights, quite a bit of it. But even though a lot of his production was the result of plays from Kane, one thing I constantly noticed, was he often seemed to be in the right spot. Whether for a rebound to bang home, or to take a drop pass heading up ice, he seems to be in the right spots. Some of that could be chemistry with an extremely talented linemate, but there's also some of that which is learned.

A productive reunion with Bertuzzi and Fabbri would be a welcome scenario for the Red Wings, as they effectively lack a bonafide 1C or 2C, depending on where you slot Larkin (by default, he falls into 1C category here). Regardless, it seems the Wings are counting on a lot out of Suter this year, and it may not be all that fair to lump a ton of expectation and responsibility on him from the start. This will be his third team in three years, with new linemates at each stop. Not to mention, the transition back to North America last year after spending a few years back overseas following his time in the Ontario Hockey League.

There will be a transition period for sure while Suter acclimates to his new linemates, assuming they are consistent (this is probably my biggest knock on Blashill, and sure he hasn't had much to work with, but even from his first season behind the bench, he is awfully quick to shuffle the lines, and it shows in the lack of chemistry between some otherwise talented players). Hopefully Suter will find some chemistry with whomever he plays with, and his positioning is encouraging on that front. A sophomore slump, however, could be devastating for a team without a whole lot of talent down the middle.