Looking forward to the 2021-22 season, the foregone conclusion is that the Red Wings will again be a bottom-10 team. While many of us eagerly await the upcoming year, if only to see if the team's prized prospects can take that 'next step,' I will take a look forward to the trade deadline and what the team may be able to fetch for their handful of trade candidates.
The Red Wings already used one of their three salary retention spots on Richard Panik, so that will certainly complicate things at the trade deadline for the next two seasons, as Panik's deal had two years remaining. Due to the continued flat-cap this season, any trade involving a cap hit over $2mm may require retaining cap hit, or taking a bad contract back, so it will make things challenging for Stevie, as just about anybody being moved will fit this bill.
Nick Leddy - while many of us were skeptical of Yzerman to give up a second rounder for Leddy, here is the reason he did. It's entirely possible that the Wings could end up fetching a first round pick for him at the trade deadline. Columbus was able to get a first rounder each for David Savard and Nick Foligno, plus a third and fourth, respctively. Leddy would fall into the same area value-wise as those two, and depending on the season he has, could return close to the same. He may not come with the additional mid-round pick, but a first rounder wouldn't be out of the question. Obviously, he needs to stay healthy (he has done so throughout his career) and be productive, but the value the team could fetch is where spending the second rounder to acquire him made some sense, albeit with a bit of risk. Cap hit would have to be retained in any deal, and an intermediary club would likely need to be found to absorb 25% of his cap hit as well, just as in the Savard and Foligno deals last year.
However, if the team likes the chemistry, leadership, and fit, they could try to extend him. Realistically, it will be difficult for the team to acquire a similar player on the free agent market until the club really improves, so this may not be a bad way to go. Fewer assets for the future, but the mentorship of a more offensive player could be good for Hronek, Seider, Lindstrom, Edvinsson, and others in the next few years.
Robby Fabbri - The biggest struggle with Fabbri, once again, will be staying healthy. In his NHL career, he has yet to play in a full season, and the injury struggles are well documented. When healthy, he shows the ability to be a 25-25-50 guy. Coming off injuries, he clearly loses momentum, but when he's up to speed, he scores at better than a 0.5 point per game clip. There are some defensive deficiencies to his game, but for a contender looking to get some depth scoring in the top-9, he would be an attractive option. Like Leddy, some cap hit would have to be retained, but if he stays healthy, there's no reason he couldn't fetch a second rounder, if even in the 2023 draft (sooner would obviously be more valuable).
Like Leddy, if the Red Wings feel Robby is part of the future plans, they could still try to resign him. Regardless, all of this hinges on his ability to stay healthy.
Troy Stecher - With an influx of right-shooting defensemen about to inundate the Red Wings roster, it is safe to say this is probably Troy's last season in Detroit. He was one of the teams best players in terms of advanced statistics last season, but with so many promising young players (Hronek, Seider, Lindstrom), he simply doesn't seem to have a spot. There isn't much offense to his game, despite some dazzling plays in the world championships. He just makes the plays, and for a contender, that could be valuable.
His $1.7mm cap hit doesn't make a move prohibitive, but at that price, many contenders will likely be able to find a better player through a trade, even if that player is more expensive. At that time of the year, it comes down to the best deal a team can make with its cap space. So cap hit may need to be retained, or another partner found to make it work. At that point, retention spots may be better spent elsewhere.
Thomas Greiss - A trade involving Greiss would mean a few things. First, he picked up right where he left off last season. Even in a platoon situation, his numbers would rank high among the leagues top netminders. Second, he is not likely to be re-signed at seasons end. Third, and most importantly, Alex Nedeljkovic has shown he is the goalie it was believed he could be when he finished as a finalist for the Norris Trophy last season, prompting a trade to the Red Wings and a two year, $6mm contract.
Greiss likely wouldn't command a big return unless he is carrying more of the weight, which would beg the question of why he's being traded in the first place. David Rittich snagged Calgary a third round pick last year, after a few seasons of reliable work. Using that as the comparison, Greiss may be able to fetch a second rounder, but cap hit would have to be retained somewhere.
Marc Staal - While he has a full no-move clause, I imagine he would waive it for a small handful of clubs with a legitimate shot at the cup. One of those would likely be Carolina, where his brother Jordan plays. Staal may not bring much back, and he falls into the same category as Leddy, where his leadership and mentorship may be valued more than what they bring back, with the rebuild headed into overdrive and another half-dozen defensive prospects waiting on the doorstep. He could probably bring a fourth or fifth rounder back with him, and the Wings would likely take whatever contract back that would open a roster spot for him. Modest cap hit at $2mm, but would still be tough without retention, and those two spots would beg for a better use.
Vladislav Namestnikov - We didn't see much offensively from Vlad in his first season in Detroit, but the ability to chip in a few goals is certainly there. What he did do was flex his defensive prowess, and at trade deadline time, there are bound to be teams looking to flex theirs, too. Unless we see a spike in his offensive output, he probably wouldn't bring back much, but a fourth or fifth rounder wouldn't be unreasonable. Like Stecher and Staal, his cap hit may make a trade difficult, a salary retention is likely better used elsewhere.
Sam Gagner - Gagner provided a veteran presence, and showed he could be a valuable depth forward. Despite his being a former top-10 pick, he was never able to stick at the top of a lineup. The offensive ability to obvious, but he just can't keep up with the pace these days. His ability to play reliable two way hockey as a fourth line center may make him a candidate, too. Not likely to bring back more than a fifth-sixth rounder, but a pick is a pick at this point.
Adam Erne - Erne showed exactly why Yzerman gave up a fourth round pick to bring him to Detroit upon his arrival. His 11 goals last season projects to 20 over a whole season. If he can continue what he did last season, he will certainly have some value going forward, and could likely bring back a second rounder. However, with one season left on his contract, he would probably need to bring back more than that for a trade to occur.
Tyler Bertuzzi - He is the type of player all teams want in the playoffs, and he could be on the tail-end of his prime by the time the Red Wings win a playoff series again. The rumors are swirling, but Yzerman knows he has an asset here. If the injury issues are behind him, Stevie would be wise hold out for a center prospect here. While Bertuzzi could likely command the kind of return that Mantha fetched, perhaps a bit less, he will still bring back a haul. That's where it become imperative for Yzerman and Co. to compensate for their lack of a lottery pick that would land them the sort of top center that has eluded them through this rebuild. Only a handful of teams have that sort of prospect, and not many of them are playoff teams.
If Yzerman is wise to only trade Bertuzzi (if at all) for the type of futures that have eluded them thus far (centers, centers, centers), a trade likely doesn't happen in season. At least this season.
All in all, if this past season is any indication, we may only see a few bodies moved. In all likelihood, we won't see another Anthony Mantha sized surprise, but seeing bodies moved for a second, third, or fourth round pick isn't out of the question. It is possible that a move is made to add another first rounder, but that would depend on the direction the team takes this year. The bigger the step forward, the lower that chance. A step backward, may increase the odds of trades, but that could impact the value the assets have in the first place.
I think Nick Leddy will bring a lot of value to the team, and they will try and hold onto him. I would suspect the team adds three picks at the deadline at this point, and none likely above the second round. If they end up not using their salary retention slots, which is probably unlikely, they may offer them to other teams as they did last year in the David Savard trade.
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