Thinking ahead to the start of the season, I thought I'd put down some ideas on how the possible outcomes could affect the rebuild...
Season outcome possibilities:
Good: Breakouts from a handful of key players, team finishes just below the playoff bubble.
- The likes of Suter, Seider, Vrana, and Zadina all take serious strides and establish themselves as impact players.
- Larkin, Fabbri, Bertuzzi all stay healthy, playing in 95% of team games.
- A couple other nice "surprises" happen. Mitchell Stephens has some untapped potential, and Jonatan Berggren, Lucas Raymond, and Joe Veleno could all see extended looks at the NHL level.
- Nedeljkovic repeats his "rookie year" success, and is a Calder candidate for second season.
- A couple of expiring contracts could be moved at the deadline. Most likely candidates would be Gagner, Namestnikov, and Stecher. I think the club would be interested in trying to hang onto Leddy if there is a fit, as I don't think you'd trade a second rounder for an expiring contract when you're rebuilding. If there is a trade to be made to bring a center into the mix, I think it could happen.
Bad: Continued regression from existing players, multiple injuries derail season, team slips into the bottom three.
- Suter struggles to score without elite linemates. Seider struggles at the NHL level. Vrana loses scoring touch he showed after trade. Zadina never finds scoring touch.
- Larkin, Fabbri, Bertuzzi all miss significant time.
- Nedeljkovic and Greiss both struggle.
- Fire sale. A number of Leddy, Stecher, Namestnikov, Bertuzzi, Hronek, Fabbri, Suter could be moved at deadline for futures. But, if the team is that bad, their value could disappear.
Expected: Growth from a few players, slides from a couple others, team still finishes in bottom 6-10 in league.
- I would expect Suter to struggle out of the gate, but eventually find some chemistry with a talented winger. Vrana should cool off, his shooting percentage will come back to earth from the 25% he was at after the trade last year, likely settling in around his careen 13.7% rate. However, he should also get close to 200 shots, if not more in a full season on the top line, putting him in the high 20s in goals for the season. Zadina will probably find a little more success than he had this year. It's hard to imagine his bad puck luck continuing around the net. There were more than a handful of times last season when the puck just didn't bounce his way. He has far too good of a shot to repeat a 6.2% shooting percentage. Over a full season, with some better puck luck, I don't see how he couldn't score 20 goals this season.
- Odds are, one of Larkin, Fabbri, and Bertuzzi will miss some time. How much time will be what determines the Wings fate this season.
- Stephens seems destined to be the 3-4C. If he can find some of his untapped potential, that could become 2-3C. Joe Veleno seems most likely to stick in the NHL this season. If he can find some of the offense that had him as a top scorer in the QMJHL for two season, that would go a long ways for this team. Berggren and Raymond are not likely to play significant time, as the team wouldn't want to burn a year of their ELCs unless they tear it up. And by tear it up, I mean producing near a point-per-game clip. Unless one of the sticks with the club out of camp, it's not likely they would eclipse that 9 game mark unless they are torching the AHL, too.
- It probably isn't likely that Nedeljkovic has quite the same success this time around. Even Greiss struggled in his first season with the club, and there will be an adjustment period with a vastly different team in front of him. I mean, the best defense is a good offense, right? Greiss will probably look a bit more like the netminder we saw in the second half of 2021. He clearly adjusted, and looked like the guy the Wings knew they were getting. I would still plan on a platoon situation, but TG should be able to carry the weight if AN has any struggles adjusting.
- Trades involving Gagner, Namestnikov, and Stecher could occur at the deadline if the team doesn't envision any of them being re-signed. Same goes for Leddy. If Bertuzzi and Fabbri stay healthy, I could see a trade happening if it could improve the long term outlook. In any trade for a serious asset like this, I think Yzerman will insist on a young center or center prospect coming back the other way.
We saw last season, that a mild improvement was possible even though a lot of things didn't go right. We saw some improvement from Rasmussen, and a partially rebuilt defense that really cut down opponents' shot quality. We hoped to see Larkin cement himself as a true number one center (which we now think may never happen), and form a dominant trio with Bertuzzi and Anthony Mantha who was certain to become a dominant player. When the latter didn't happen, it prompted the trade for Vrana.
With continued reinforcements on the back end, Seider should help even with some inevitable growing pains, there should be stability even if the forward group continues to stagnate. This really boils down to the forwards and their ability to both stay healthy, and take that next step in their development. Even with the health of Larkin, Fabbri, and Bertuzzi being in question, the team managed to stay competitive right down to the end. Credit the defense.
With a new assistant coach in Alex Tanguay, it gives some hope for the power play. Tanguay played on some tremendous power play units in his heyday, so having someone who has done it with the best, with go a long ways. It is important to note however, that it still comes down to the players on the ice. Nick Leddy will help in this regard. What I saw a lot last year, was teams just not respecting the Wings players with the puck on the power play. The only guy who was really respected with the puck was Mantha, the rest of the team would have a defender on them as soon as they got the puck, and it was a rare occasion when they could actually retain possession. The talent level necessary to beat guys one-on-one and create that aspect of respect when the Wings have the puck still isn't there, and with only one meaningful acquisition up front in Suter, the growth will have to come from within.
Being healthy will go a little ways toward picking up a few extra wins, but the big steps forward will have to come from increased production, resulting from the continued development of the younger players. This season will be a true test of the Red Wings development ability. It's not so much a reflection on Yzerman, but more on the struggles we saw under Holland, when the team regularly failed to draft and develop NHL talent (think, Emmerton, Oulette, Sproul). This season should answer the question, 'Can the Wings salvage anything of the Holland era?' (Rasmussen, Zadina, Veleno, and Berggren are all Holland picks with a lot of hype to their names...) There have been a handful of personnel changes in the development department since Yzerman took the reigns, but it's still too early to tell the results as no Yzerman draft pick has played an NHL game yet. That should change early this year, with Seider and Raymond both knocking on the doors of LCA.
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