Jeff Blashill's Grade... and what's missing

Helene St. James had an article yesterday for the Free Press here, talking about Jeff Blashill's value to the club. It gave me the idea to talk a little about the topic myself...

The bottom line with Blashill, is the development of young players. The team is seeing some positive results in that regard this year, but it isn't all roses. For this purpose, I will exclude Larkin and Bertuzzi, as they have mostly moved past the development phase of their careers, and have cemented themselves as the cornerstones of the franchise.

Plusses:

1. Moritz Seider - he has been everything that was promised, and more. While his offensive ability was never expected to be close to that of a Cale Makar, he certainly has been no slouch. Nothing fancy here, but rock solid play at both ends of the ice. He has become more comfortable as the season has progressed. He looks like a lock to be a top-2 defenseman.
2. Lucas Raymond - very much on the bubble at the outset of camp, Raymond impressed with his ability to play at the NHL pace, making impressive plays along the way. There have been some statistical ups and downs, but no reason to be skeptical of his play. He certainly has the potential to be a top line player, and is already a bon-a-fide top-6.
3. Alex Nedeljkovic - a widely cheered acquisition during the offseason, Ned has continued to build on his first rookie campaign last season with Carolina. He has won a number of games on his own, and is beginning to look like a goalie the Wings can rely on for the next 5-7 years, if they choose to.
4. Gustav Lindstrom - Similar to Seider, there is nothing flashy about Gus' game. He makes the smart plays, and good first passes to start breakouts. While it would be nice if he could find another offensive element to his game, to match his defensive prowess, history at every level suggests that may not come. He has never put up big numbers offensively, so his ceiling may be limited to how well he can shut down opposing attacks. For now, he is a solid 5-6 defenseman, but without that offensive side, may be hard-pressed to work his way into the top-4.

Even:

1. Filip Hronek - after what seemed like a couple of years where he looked like a top-4 defenseman, he has struggled somewhat in second pair duty. The offensive instincts are obvious, but considering Seider is typically seeing the other team's top lines, his defensive play is still an issue. His offensive output remains strong, especially considering he is no longer on the top power-play unit. With stronger defensive play, he is a 2-3 d-man. As it stands, he is closer to 4-5.

Minuses:

1. Joe Veleno - this is where I begin the parade of heralded Ken Holland picks that have failed to bear any fruit... Heralded as an NHL ready center, he got off to a decent start, with multiple points in his first 10 games. Since then, however, he has disappeared. Granted, he is seeing sparse offensive zone time on the 4th line, but what was notable in his first few games is his quick first couple steps and above average stick-handling ability. And while he has a quick first couple of steps, he seems to lack another separation gear when skating in a straight line. More quality time would benefit him, but what looked like an ability to create earlier on, has disappeared during his offensive drought. If he finds the offense, he could be a legit number 3 center, with the ability to play some on the power-play.
2. Michael Rasmussen - like Veleno, he was a talented pivot in junior hockey that has failed to take that "next step." While Veleno is only seeing his first meaningful playing time this season, Rasmussen has already provided an abundance of disappointment for Wings fans over the past four. With a 6'6" frame like his, he certainly gets pushed around a lot. He plays more like he is 5'10" rather than six and a half feet tall. Compared to a guy like Adam Erne who is listed at 6'1" and plays more like 6'3-4", Rasmussen rarely wins battles for space. He is not overly physical, frequently declining to finish a check on the forecheck, and hasn't taken that next step this season. Last year his skating was notably better, albeit still abysmal, but with so many shortcomings in his play, it's hard to see him fitting as more than a 4th line center. He can win faceoffs, but his defensive play isn't stellar, so his ceiling as a 4th liner may be limited. His ability to stick in the NHL will be 100% dependent on his ability to find offense, as he hasn't shown the toolkit to play a checking role. Even in a little bit of power play time, he fails to be disruptive in front of the net. Again, for such a big frame, not a good sign.
3. Filip Zadina - this is the one that I continue to be baffled by... He has a phenomenal shot, when given the space, and clear puck-handling ability. Unlike Veleno, he doesn't have a quick first couple steps, but like Veleno, also lacks that "separation gear." In the January 26 game against the Blackhawks, he had one shift where he created 3-4 chances, only to have MAF make a couple of spectacular saves. The ability to create is there, but his skating keeps him from driving the play himself. His shooting percentage is really low, which makes me think that he's had some bad puck-luck, but his career percentage isn't much better, even though the sample size is very small. He has been brought up as a change-of-scenery candidate, but all that would bring back is someone else's reclamation project. Given the Wings clear need for scoring wingers, it makes sense to keep him in the fold. If he starts to find the net - then great! If he can't find the net, he has still made sizable progress with other parts of his game to stick on any NHL roster... It's just a matter of where. For now, he is right where he should be, on the third line. If the offense starts to come, he could wiggle his way into the top-6.
4. Givani Smith - he hasn't made the offensive strides I thought were possible after his 16 game cameo last season. He has provided the advertised sandpaper to the team, but has been a bit of a wild-card in terms of discipline. It reminds me of Sean Avery's brief time with the team. There's an energy every time he's out there, but too often, it has ended with his team down a man. He has looked like a bubble player this season, after the team showed a vote of confidence by protecting him in the expansion draft over the summer. Right now, he's a 12-13th forward, but with more discipline and experience, the potential is there to be a 3rd liner, as he has some offensive ability.

Incomplete:

1. Mitchell Stephens - a guy who showed some good hands in junior, and some good jump in the preseason, he just can't catch a break. A significant 'lower-body injury' 16 games in, has him on the shelf until this spring. I liked his skating ability and his hustle, and despite being a 4th line center, looks like he may have a bit of offense to his game. He has shown offense at every previous level, just not in limited time in the NHL. Unfortunately, this extended absence doesn't help his cause. He is a 4th line center when healthy, and seems to have some ability to play a 3c role when needed.

All in all, a few young players have made significant strides, while a few have not. I don't think it's any coincidence that all of the minuses on my list were spillovers from the Ken Holland era. Holland consistently failed to draft and develop in the last 15 years of his tenure, leading the team's fall from grace. Every draft between 2015-2018 had a questionable first round choice. Granted, Zadina was a consensus top-10 pick in his draft year, but there were doubts about his game from the beginning, leading to him falling to Detroit number 6. Montreal famously passed on him in favor of Jesperi Kotkaniemi, who was widely panned from day one.

Aside from Anthony Mantha and Larkin, taken in consecutive drafts in 2013 and 2014, respectively, one would have to go back to 2000 when the team drafted Niklas Kronwall to find a first round pick who actually lived up to expectations. Brendan Smith and Riley Sheahan have managed to stick around the NHL, but both are depth players at best. Sure, Holland traded away scores of picks to keep the team in contention, but also bragged about their ability to mine gems from the late rounds. After Zetterberg in 1999, there haven't been many late round surprises. When the picks were there, they rarely panned out.

That said, you can't pin too much on Blashill. He is developing the players Steve Yzerman is giving him, and that's what Stevie wants to see. If at some point that stops, or the Stevie believes the team has the tools to take the next step and Blashill is failing to push them there, a change will be made then. But for now, the team is clearly lacking to proper players to take that next step, and Yzerman knows it.

In my next entry, I will examine how the roster is shaping up in light of the projections above. Stay tuned...