It was a long season with a lot to unpack, so I'm going to comment on all the nonsense I'm hearing:
- "It's time to trade for a star..."
I don't even know where to begin with this one. The bottom line, is Yzerman said from day one, he wants to build through the draft. So let's see where we are. Of Yzerman's draft picks here are their games played:
Moritz Seider - 2019 - 164 games
Lucas Raymond - 2020 - 156 games
Elmer Soderblom - 2019 - 21 games
Simon Edvinsson - 2021 - 9 games
Marco Kasper - 2022 - 1 game
Yzerman has made 40 picks through four drafts. Only five have played at least one NHL game, with only two playing a whole season. With that in mind, I can't really say the roster has been built through the draft.
There are a number of draftees on the cusp, but you really need to see them through to the NHL before you can take a step forward. Leaving out the players listed above, on the cusp:
Albert Johansson - 2019
William Wallinder - 2020
Carter Mazur - 2021
Amadeus Lombardi - 2022
I'd guess that at least two of those players make their NHL debut in 2023-24.
You don't want to make a trade for a star, only to have two to three years of their prime wiped out by continued development and building. Looking at where the Red Wings pipeline is at now, they are probably two to three more years from being ready to make that splash. That can all change with a prospect breaking out. Keep in mind, Yzerman drafted Nikita Kucherov in the second round, and Brayden Point in the third round. Could Lombardi be one of those surprises? - "We need to draft forwards..."
I get it, looking positionally at the Red Wings' prospect pipeline, it is certainly defense heavy, particularly on the left side. BUT, you still have to take the best player available. High-end players and prospects can always be traded to fill bigger needs down the road, but not if you don't have the best player. Look at Colorado, they had four fairly young defensemen on their cup roster in Makar, Toews, Girard, and Byram. Granted, Toews was 28 at the end of the season, but a huge contributor. Toews and Girard were both acquired for that exact reason.
If anything, this example just goes to reinforce my point in number 1 above, where if Yzerman is filling out a roster with prospects, and we have three high-end defense prospects and few impact forwards, the team probably isn't ready to take a big step forward. Take the best player, if you get too many at one position, and have a chance to move the needle somewhere else, you can make a trade down the road. A better prospect is liable to be flipped for a better player down the road regardless. - Draft Lottery Luck?
I have a whole bunch of conspiracy theories about the NHL draft and how the same (big market) teams always seem to 'win' it. The Rangers complained in 2020 about 'play-in' teams being excluded from the lottery, then they *magically* win the whole thing to get Lafreniere. The Blackhawks in 2019, in a serious cap crunch - and needing cheap talent to go with Kane and Toews, *magically* move up 10 spots to take Kirby Dach. Now, on the heels of a major abuse scandal, and perhaps more importantly - abysmal attendance and tv ratings, the Blackhawks strike lottery gold again, in the most anticipated draft since Connor McDavid was drafted in 2015.
Say what you want about it, but look back at how many times both the Blackhawks, Devils and Rangers have moved up in the draft (hint: it's more than once). The NHL knows that the money is in the TV ratings, and having your biggest markets be competitive, is the best thing for TV ratings. And now to have an apparent faux pas on the lottery announcement show, indicating the TV announcers effectively knew who the pick was prior to the announcement, really draws into focus the scenarios above. I'm not saying the lottery is manipulated, but year after year, the league continues to fan the flames of suspicion.
I digress... I said all of that to say this: whatever the reason is for the Red Wings not winning one of three straight lotteries in which they were favored, the bottom line is that it has absolutely affected their rebuild. Instead of getting a crack at a couple of guys that could seriously move the needle, they will need to amass a few more quality prospects elsewhere in the draft to make up for it.
There is a talent gap at forward, no doubt, and particularly in terms of high-end talent. Lots of good players are picked in the 9-10 range regularly, with Timo Meier and Mikko Rantanen picked back-to-back in 2015 in those spots. All indications this year, is there will be a good forward available at number 9, but will it be the best player? Who knows. So that means the Red Wings have four options to fill out the pipeline: 1) lottery luck (see: above), 2) draft quality forwards from 9-16 the next couple seasons, 3) take the best player, and potentially trade down the road, 4) find a whole bunch of Kucherovs and Points in rounds 2-7.
