The offseason has been a mixed bag so far. Another draft where the Red Wings take the 'high floor' guy, as well as another supremely talented defenseman in the first round. In all, the team took four forwards, five defensemen, and two goaltenders. The plan continues to become clearer, build from the back-end out.
People love to compare the job Steve Yzerman is doing with the Red Wings to what he did with Tampa Bay. To that, I will say what I keep repeating: they are two very different animals, you really can't compare them.
When Yzerman arrived in Tampa, they already had Steven Stamkos and Victor Hedman, drafted in the two drafts prior to his arrival. Compare that to the Red Wings, where the cupboards were barren. The only real asset, was Dylan Larkin, a far cry from the generational talent he had as building blocks previously. The prospect pipeline was weak, Svechnikov, Cholowski, Rasmussen, and Zadina being the previous four top picks, and none of whom seem likely to live up to the hype of a first round pick. Rasmussen has shown some flashes, but consistency has been an issue. So Yzerman started in Detroit with nothing, has gotten no lottery help, and has struggled to find offense in a league where teams hold onto their best players.
So, if you can't win games by outscoring the opponent, what else can you do? You keep them from outscoring you! This is clearly the path Yzerman is taking, and it really is the logical way to go. Think about it, tighten up on the back end and wait for some of your kids to develop, and hopefully a few of them become offensive contributors. Your offensive growth comes from within, and you've already gotten better defensively. It's not the sexy way to go, but without those lottery picks that have been synonymous with success in the salary cap era, it may be the most logical path.
Compher and Copp aren't high-end signings, but they will help keep the puck out of their own net while some of the kids develop into scorers. The commitment to defense is clear. Add in Daniel Sprong, a known defensive liability, who could be effective playing with the aforementioned Compher or Copp.
I hear a lot of people complaining that Yzerman isn't doing enough to win in Larkin's window. I've said it before, and I will say it again. The rebuild has no bearing on Larkin. He was drafted five years before the rebuild really began with Seider. It's not a fair measuring stick for Yzerman. Steve said at the draft that they are still in the collecting assets phase. And he's right. You can't make a trade for a star until you're already competitive, and they really aren't. Beyond that, a trade for a star now, only makes the team incrementally better, good enough to make the playoffs, but still get knocked out in the first round. Not to mention, how it would decimate the farm system. DeBrincat is a low-end top-line forward. He doesn't play a 200-foot game, so there would be some sacrifice. Giving up a couple picks and a couple prospects really doesn't move the needle 3-4 years out. Especially up front, the Red Wings can't absorb 1-2 high end prospects being traded. I would love to see the Wings win a cup with Larkin, but you really can't bet the house just for a shot at it.
The Red Wings just finished their fourth season with Yzerman at the helm. When he arrived, he said he would build through the draft, and it would take a long time. Only five out of 50+ draft picks have made an appearance in the NHL so far (two with less than 10 games). So the roster still isn't built through the draft. When you've got 10+ picks on the roster, you can better assess how the rebuild is going. Once the Red Wings make the playoffs, then it's probably time to swing a trade for a star. Patience is key. Each lottery snub probably adds another year to the rebuild (if you can't get the guy who's going to score 30 goals, then you need a couple guys that can score 20). It's painful, but the process is clear, it just requires an extra bit of patience.
As of now, I would estimate the Red Wings finish just out of the playoffs in 2023-24. To me, it's not yet worth the price to trade just to get knocked out in the first round. Get that one last lottery pick, and then take the step forward. Another year of development isn't what we all want to see, but it is what's needed. That's part of the process, as is having realistic expectations.
What would you rather see, the Red Wings make the playoffs the next few years, and maybe win a round here and there, or truly load up, and make a few runs at the Cup? I know my answer.
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