With the Red Wings still probably on the outside of the playoff picture looking in, here's some things that need to happen for them to get into the playoffs this season:
- Lucas Raymond breaks out. This needs to happen for the Red Wings to become an elite team. The puck skills and hockey sense are there, but can he physically be impactful enough to move the needle? Not just using his body, but his feet too. I think the ability is certainly there, perhaps with the right supporting cast, for him to be a 30 goal/70 point player. But, is there even more there? That's what we need to see this year, whether it's 70 points, or 80, it's time for Raymond to take a big step forward.
He put on some weight in the offseason, and it could really benefit him to watch David Perron and how he protects the puck down low. Last season, he lost way too many battles in the corners, and his body language suggested he was giving up too easy many times. He needs to be tougher to play against, both harder to knock off the puck, and tougher to slow down in stride. His skating is decent, but can he use it to add some elusiveness to his puck moving abilities? After all, a good skater with good puck skills can be a dangerous thing! - The team has better luck with health this season (knock on wood). The past few years, the Red Wings have gotten off to strong (relatively) starts, not fading until December or January when injuries decimated the roster. This year, fortunately, they are much better insulated against that possibility. J.T. Compher excelled in Colorado last year when he was tasked with bigger responsibilities, and Daniel Sprong has shown a knack for getting off quick shots in the preseason, not to mention the fact that he had 21 goals last year in a mostly fourth line role. Add in Klim Kostin, and there's more depth than the Red Wings have had in years.
One thing I think people really overlook is how much injuries have impacted the Red Wings the past couple seasons. Robby Fabbri has yet to play a full season in the NHL, and while I can't help but feel for the guy as he's a tireless worker, you can't really expect him to play 60+ games. Michael Rasmussen was very effective, and looking like he was rounding into a really solid middle-six guy before his injury last season. For a guy whose biggest knock had long been his skating, there were times that I felt his skating was becoming an asset, using those long legs to get bigger and more powerful strides, and winning races to pucks. Still, for a 6'6" guy, I wish he would play bigger. If I didn't know better, I would swear he was 6'2" to 6'3", as he doesn't use that big frame to his advantage often enough. - Defense buckles down. Since the Red Wings have had the complete opposite of lottery luck since they became an annual fixture there, it's obvious Yzerman is pivoting the approach. Only one team has won a Stanley Cup in the salary cap era when they didn't have a top-3 pick on their roster... the 2008 Detroit Red Wings. Every other team has had a top-3 pick. Nearly all of those teams have had one or more of those players, who were dynamic offensive players. The Red Wings, once again, have none of that. That can change, if Lucas Raymond can become a more dynamic player. Nate Danielson has looked impressive in preseason play, as well, so there's a chance he could develop into the offensive talent the Red Wings have been denied at the top of the draft, but he's also likely ticketed back to juniors. But there's no denying the fact that the Red Wings' best prospects remain on the back end. Seider, Edvinsson, Wallinder, Sandin-Pellika, Johansson, Viro, Buium, Tuomisto. Eight guys with legitimate chances at making the NHL (if they haven't already). Looking back at Yzerman's drafts, and I can barely get to 8 forwards (Soderblom, Raymond, Hanas, Mazur, Kasper, Buchelnikov, Lombardi, Danielson). It's clear the returns have been better on the back end so far.
So the pivot is clear. Since defense is where the returns are coming, it seems Yzerman is doubling-down on the back end. It's a strategy that's relatively untested in the salary cap era, but it could just be a short-term play. Tighten-up the back end, use that to become competitive, allow some of those guys to develop, and see how it all unfolds. By adding depth in the process, the Red Wings will be able to ice four competitive lines, whereas a lot of the contenders can only ice 2-3 because of their cap situations. This is how Seattle made it work last year. One thing I keep telling people, is that prospects can be traded down the road to fill another need. The Red Wings clearly still lack a game-breaking talent offensively, but you can only wait so long before you need to turn the corner, so to speak, on building the roster. You need to create a positive environment for these kids, and losing is never going to do that. They continue to bring these kids along, but it didn't help that the cupboard was barren when it began. Most teams have an asset or two they could ship off, think, Timo Meier. Between the lack of assets to start the rebuild, and the lack of lottery luck, these two things have lengthened the rebuild. - Husso rebounds. I think this will happen. It was clear the workload got to him last year. It was also clear that, even on his off-nights, he still gave the team the best chance to win. With some help behind him, hopefully he can carry the bulk of the load at the level he started last season with.
- Another young player flourishes. At the end of the day, the team needs to be built through the draft. With only two Yzerman picks on the roster last year, you can hardly say that's the case. And that is also why I laugh when people say they think the Red Wings need to be in the playoffs this year. That really isn't practical. Say they add two young players to the roster this year. That makes four. Four out of 23 isn't really building through the draft. It takes time, and hopefully we start seeing some later picks stick on the roster, but even then, it will be 3-4 years before they start to reach their potential. The Red Wings really did start from zero under Yzerman. No veterans they could trade for picks, a collection of middle-six quality prospects (Bertuzzi, Mantha, Rasmussen, Berggren, Veleno), and Hronek on D. Larkin was really the only building block, and even he fits better as a second line center, than a number one. It just made the timeline a lot longer, when most teams may be ready to move ahead.
That said, if the Red Wings are going to take a step forward, they need other young players to take a step forward, too. They were Holland picks, but Berggren and Rasmussen could both take steps forward that would help the team. Simon Edvinsson or Albert Johanssen could also help the cause by showing they are ready for big NHL minutes on the back end, and Carter Mazur, Cross Hanas, and Marco Kasper putting up big numbers in the AHL would be a welcomed sign that there is some hope on the offensive side.
Yzerman has signaled he is pivoting to some extent on the rebuild, putting defense first, partly due to the wealth of prospects on the back end. The defense is as good as it's been under Yzerman. Add in Alex DeBrincat, if he can score 30+ goals, and last year's improved power play is looking ever better this season. Add in a full season of a healthy Andrew Copp, and the Red Wings are certainly poised to challenge for a playoff spot.
